The Invisible Gorrila

Title - The Invisible Gorrila
Author - Christopher Chabris & Daniel Simons
ISBN - 978-0307459664

Illusion of Attention:
A lack of attention to an unexpected object.  People experience an illusion of attention where we experience far less of our visual world than we think we do.  Just because something is distinct does not necessarily mean we will notice it.  However, increasing exposure to rare events or objects will make you more likely to notice it in the future.  As we use more of our limited attention we are that much less likely to notice the unexpected.  A study at Yale used the idea of the invisible gorilla study but added another component, distraction.  On average 30% of participants are unable to notice the Gorilla, or in this case a tiny red cross that moved across a computer screen, compared to the already existing white crosses that participants were told to focus on.  Participants were asked to talk on a cell phone while performing this task.  The number of people unable to notice the red cross now tripled to 90%.  The illusion of attention is a largely modern phenomenon.  In a less complex world there is less to be aware of. 

Illusion of Memory:
Our mind will create false memories that are so strong we would argue with absolute surety we are right.  This is because we use specific memory and our knowledge of how objects interact or are related.  We extract meaning from what we see, hear, taste, or feel and this creates a web of related ideas and feelings.  Whenever we recall memory we integrate whatever details we do remember with our expectations for what we should remember.  The illusion of memory gives way to change blindness, where people are blind to the changes between what was in view moments before and what is in view now.  Most people believe that they will notice unexpected changes, when in fact almost nobody does.  The illusion of memory leads us to assume that our actions, memories, beliefs are mutually consistent and stable over time, unless we receive direct evidence to the contrary. 

Illusion of Confidence:
The illusion of confidence causes us to overs estimate our own qualities, especially our abilities relative to other people.  However, studies show that confidence is not perfectly correlated to ability.

Illusion of Knowledge:
Whenever people think they know more than they do.  We seem overly sure in our knowledge until we are questioned on it, then our shortcomings are revealed.  We often mistake our knowledge of what happens for an understanding of why it happens, and we mistake a feeling of familiarity for genuine knowledge.  To avoid the illusion of knowledge, start by admitting that your personal views of how expensive or time-consuming your unique projects in life will be is wrong.  When we analyze complex models we try to do so through simple glasses.  We do so by 1) deciding how well we know and understand our simple models 2) How familiar are with the surface element concepts, vocabulary of the complex system and 3) how much information we are aware of, and can easily access, about the complex system.  We then often decide that this limited knowledge allows us to understand the whole system.  Investors who have more information generally believe that they have more knowledge, but information can be mostly uninformative, creating the illusion of knowledge.  The illusion of knowledge appears to be a necessary ingredient for the formation of bubbles.  The proliferation of information about finance, from cable news networks to websites to business magazines, is a recipe for the illusory feeling that we know how the markets work. 

Illusion of Cause:
Our understanding of the world is systematically biased to perceive meaning rather than randomness and to infer cause rather than coincidence.  This illusion effects us in three ways: 1) we perceive patterns in randomness and interpret these repeating patterns as predictions of future events.  2) We assume that events that happen together have a casual relationship 3) We interpret events that happened earlier as the causes of events that happened later or appear to happen later. 

Illusion of Potential:
Leads us to think that vast reservoirs of untapped mental ability exist in our brains just waiting to be accessed.  What we intuitively accept and believe is derived from what we collectively assume and understand.